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A message from Bryan Luro, ManpowerGroup Middle East Country Manager
“The Q4 results show that UAE employers are moving back into growth mode with greater confidence and clearer workforce priorities. Expansion is once again the main catalyst for hiring, while demand is strongest for roles that support customers, commercial growth and increasingly digital operating models. At the same time, organizations are paying close attention to recruitment quality, early-career development and the ability to identify candidates whose skills and expectations genuinely match the role,” comments Mr. Bryn Luro, Country Manager of ManpowerGroup Middle East. “These findings point to a UAE labor market that is expanding with greater purpose. Employers are growing their teams, creating more opportunities for early-career talent and improving the efficiency of their recruitment processes, even as skills shortages and external pressures continue to influence workforce decisions. The organizations best positioned for the next phase will be those that combine business growth with stronger talent pipelines and more precise hiring strategies,” added Mr. Luro.
Key Findings
UAE’s Net Employment Outlook (NEO) for Q4 2026 is +41%, rising 24 points from Q3 2026 and standing four points below Q4 2025.
Finance & Insurance leads the major sectors with an Outlook of 60%, while Manufacturing has the lowest Outlook this quarter at 26%.
Expansion and new business lines continue to create roles, but geopolitical pressures and economic caution are the main reasons for workforce reductions.
Early-career hiring is increasing at nearly half of UAE organizations, while skills shortages and candidate-job mismatches continue to slow recruitment for some employers.
UAE workforces continue to expand, with 51% of employers reporting increased employee numbers compared with one year ago, and rising to 74% among very large organizations.
Hiring speed remains broadly stable, as 38% of employers say vacancy-filling times are unchanged and 36% report faster hiring, while skills shortages are the leading cause of delays (30%).
Find The Talent and Solutions You Need
To discuss the results personally or explore how ManpowerGroup can help you find the talent and solutions needed to propel your organization forward, contact us today.
Past ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Reports
The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey measures employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the upcoming quarter. It is the most extensive forward-looking survey of its kind, unparalleled in its size, scope and longevity. The Survey has been running since 1962 and is one of the most trusted indicators of labor market trends in the world.
All the data in the survey is based on the answer to one question: How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the coming three months as compared to the current quarter?
In addition to the main employment question, the survey asks up to six additional questions which change quarterly. These questions reflect changing economic or workforce dynamics and trends. Topic areas range from talent shortage to workforce training and development to employee sentiments and well-being.
The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. A positive Net Employment Outlook figure means that, on balance, there are more employers who expect to add to their headcount in the following three months than those who intend to reduce staff.
The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey only measures if employers expect to hire or not and does not provide information about specific job changes. The Survey is a forecast, not a commitment, based on informed opinions from employers and hiring managers on what will likely happen in their organization in the following quarter.
The methodology used to collect the data for the Employment Outlook is digitized across the 41 markets, beginning with the Q1 2022 report.
Respondents in previous quarters were contacted via telephone. Data is now collected online with double opt-in member panels and they are incentivized to complete the survey.
The survey participants are not derived from ManpowerGroup’s customer base. To protect the integrity of the data, survey respondents remain completely anonymous and confidential.
In line with standard findings of online surveys, more people are now taking a position – selecting that their workforce will either increase or decrease vs. no change. Because the Net Employment Outlook is based only on the people saying increase or decrease, the result of this higher level of engagement means the methodology shift may contribute to a higher Outlook.
Employers are selected based on the types of companies and organizations they represent. We want to ensure that our panel is representative of each participating country’s national labor market, so each country’s panel is built in proportion to that country’s overall distribution of industry sectors and organization sizes.
The person we select to interview will be someone with a good overview of staffing levels and hiring intentions within their organization. Normally this will be the head of HR or an HR manager. However, in smaller organizations, that person may be a general manager or even the CEO.
Reputation Leaders is our lead research partner who analyzes data for all 41 countries and territories to ensure consistency.
Seasonal adjustment is a statistical process that allows the Survey data to be presented without the impact of hiring fluctuations that normally occur through the course of the year, usually as a result of various external factors, such changes in weather, traditional production cycles and public holidays. Seasonal adjustment has the effect of flattening peaks and smoothing troughs in the data to better illustrate underlying employment trends and provide a more accurate representation of the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey results.
ManpowerGroup does not track retrospective hiring trends as part of the Employment Outlook Survey, only forward-looking expectations. However, we are able to see that the Survey results do align with employment trends reported by governments and other organizations quite closely and provide one of the most robust and trusted indicators of forward-looking labor market trends in the world.
There are several ways to review the results which are reported for 41 countries across 4 regions and specific industries within each. The current results, including the Net Employment Outlook, provide a snapshot of employers’ expectations for the coming three months.
Comparing this result to the previous quarter provides a short-term perspective of hiring expectations in a particular country or sector, while comparing to the previous year gives a longer-term view on employer intentions.